Thanks for this series, I've discovered it a bit late, but I've learned something from every post so far!
I haven't found the PDF for your trade, but I'm assuming you're going long stock. What made you decide against options here? They're not very liquid, but bid/ask is okay-ish. An ITM Jul15 27 call has a time value of just about $0.30, so plenty of time to be wrong before being right: https://twitter.com/PkZweifel/status/1513528399603589124
Reading your thoughts on the Metagame made me think of Jack Schwager's Unknown Market Wizards. One of the traders in there said something like: the most powerful word in the markets is "despite", because when the market reacts to news, headlines or whatever else in a different way than what you expect, then this should lead you to question your framework instead of arguing against reality.
Hi yes the options and cash were a close call on this one, to be honest. I think overall I have been struggling to find conviction on bullish trades as my overall market view has been leaning bearish. But it was basically a coin toss because the options are not horrible at all.
Thank you Brent! I've learned so much from 50 trades in 50 weeks and look forward to each new email (probably the only email I look forward to)
Great read
Thanks for this series, I've discovered it a bit late, but I've learned something from every post so far!
I haven't found the PDF for your trade, but I'm assuming you're going long stock. What made you decide against options here? They're not very liquid, but bid/ask is okay-ish. An ITM Jul15 27 call has a time value of just about $0.30, so plenty of time to be wrong before being right: https://twitter.com/PkZweifel/status/1513528399603589124
Reading your thoughts on the Metagame made me think of Jack Schwager's Unknown Market Wizards. One of the traders in there said something like: the most powerful word in the markets is "despite", because when the market reacts to news, headlines or whatever else in a different way than what you expect, then this should lead you to question your framework instead of arguing against reality.
Hi yes the options and cash were a close call on this one, to be honest. I think overall I have been struggling to find conviction on bullish trades as my overall market view has been leaning bearish. But it was basically a coin toss because the options are not horrible at all.